AL East Preview
Fantasy draft day is upon me, I feel like a kid on Christmas day. What an exciting time. So, I figured since I'm not going to spend my time leading up to the draft to do my paper that is due tomorrow, I might as well preview the AL East. First, lets get some things out of the way as far as criteria goes. Age can, and will be factored in. Both youth inexperience, as well as veteran's with the possibility of breaking down. But unless your team is basing their success solely on the likes of Juan Gone or the Big Hurt, injuries will not be taken into consideration. I get it, people like Beckett and Burnett are injury prone, fine, but I can't predict if and when they will get hurt. And then someone like Halladay last year, taking a ball off the shin, complete freak accident. I'm not going to base predictions on Halladay possibly avoiding another bean ball off the shin.
New York Yankees (Division Champs)
Wins: 95-99
Positives: Derek Jeter is the best leader since Mark Messier. And A-rod and Mariano Rivera are the best in the league at their respective positions. Jason Giambi seems to have found his stroke again as well. This team has the ability and experience to win yet another AL East title. Joe Torre will again be the key should there be a losing streak to freak out the Boss. And not only is Johnny Damon one of the top lead-off hitters in the game, he's also not playing for Boston (or against the Yankees for 19 games) anymore.
Negatives: Outfield depth is far from an issue, but outfield defense could be. Matsui has been better than advertised defensively, but he's still no wiz. And neither Damon nor Sheffield can cover the amount of ground that they used to, plus, Damon's weak arm will be harder to hide in Yankee Stadium than it was in Fenway Park. There is also the question of whether the likes of Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small were one year wonders. Can Jaret Wright come back from injury? And Miguel Cairo is the only known back-up infielder on the team.
Outlook: I don't think they can win 100 games this year. The AL East has gotten much stronger, with the Blue Jays looking better than they have in over a decade. These teams will beat up on eachother all season long, and 100 wins will be tough to come by. I do think they have what it takes to win yet another AL East title though. Torre knows how to handle sticky situations. And contrary to what everyone has said in years past, Wang and Cano are two very nice prospects on the Yankees team that other teams will covet. Plus, is there any doubt that Steinbrenner will fork out the cash to bring in a missing piece at the deadline?
Boston Red Sox
Wins: 90-94
Positives: Youth. By far the best thing the Red Sox were able to do this offseason was to get younger in all areas. As beloved as guys like Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller were, they were no spring chickens. Not only were the offseason additions of Coco Crisp (26) and Josh Beckett (25) valuable on the field, they should hopefully be valuable for years to come. Spring training additions of Hee-Seop Choi (27) and Wily Mo Pena (24) added even more depth, and also gave the Sox two bright young outfielders under 30 years of age (Pena and Crisp). All of this was without having to give up the likes Craig Hansen, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen.
Negatives: The middle infield and the outfield are covered as far as depth goes, but after that, the ship gets shaky. With Wakefield's personal catcher Doug Mirabelli on the West coast now, Varitek's back-up is in question. The corner infield is covered by Youkilis, who had only 79 AB's last year, Mike Lowell, who has had a dismal Spring, Choi, and JT Snow, who is on the downside of his career, to say the least. And all of the starters that everyone has been raving about suddenly seem mediocre at best if the team can't get 300 innings out of Foulke and Schilling.
Outlook: This is as close to a rebuilding year as it will get for a while with the infusion of young talent in the offseason. But with question marks as big as Schilling and Foulke, its hard to think that if the teams of '03-05 couldn't knock off the Yankees as division champs, the '06 version does not seem a likely choice either. However, they should still make a push at the division crown, and at the very least, make the playoffs as the Wild Card.
Toronto Blue Jays
Wins: 85-89
Positives: One of the busiest teams in the offseason suddenly looks like a contender. They added a flame throwing closer in BJ Ryan, a 40 HR threat at third in Troy Glaus, a good young first baseman in Lyle Overbay, and a pitcher with one of the best fastballs in baseball in AJ Burnett. With Roy Halladay healthy, their first three starters (Halliday, Burnett and Lilly) are as strong as any other team in the East.
Negatives: Regardless of all the hype, Burnett's career record is still a game under .500, there's no garantee he'll develop into the pitcher they paid for. There's also the issue of division alignment. If the Jays played in the NL West, they'd run away with the division, no questions asked. Unfortunately for them, they play in the AL East, which is even more competetive than American Idol.
Outlook: Its going to be a battle for the top three teams in the AL East this year. I don't expect the Jays to fade as much as they have in years past, but I don't expect them to be playing for the division in September. A Wild Card berth is not out of the question though.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Wins: 70-75
Positives: Rocco Baldelli is scheduled to return this season. With both he and Crawford roaming the outfield, I could pass as the third outfielder. Fortunately the Devil Rays don't have that problem as they have speedster Joey Gathright. Jorge Cantu is only 24 years old and can play both 2b and 3b, and they can always hope that Aubrey Huff will bounce back from a less than notable season last year.
Negatives: Scott Kazmir is their only really good pitcher, and he's still developing, though, this could be a breakthrough year for the young lefty. After that, Edwin Jackson shows promise, and then there's everyone else. Factor in a first year manager, and the fact that Sean Burroughs was their biggest pick up of the off season, and it is going to be yet another long summer in Tampa Bay. A positive is that you can always see the Sox or Yanks for cheap if you're willing to travel.
Outlook: The Rays won 67 games last season, but aren't quite ready to jump up another 10 wins this season. They (like the Jays) unfortunately have to play in the AL East where everyone just takes turns walloping on eachother. Still, the return of Baldelli is intriguing, although we'll have to wait and see what he can do after missing an entire season. At least Rays fans will get to watch the young Kazmir every five days.
Baltimore Orioles
Wins: 67-73
Positives: Miguel Tejada is still an Oriole, for now.
Negatives: Everything else.
Outlook: This seems so doom and gloom. And even though it might look it, I don't hate the Orioles. The problem is that Tejada wanted them to improve, and I think they've taken a step back instead. Millar will be a good clubhouse addition, but little else. They lost a top 5 closer in BJ Ryan. There isn't a single Ace on their staff, and Kris Benson is hardly even a #2. Javy Lopez is 35, and his knees can't take catching anymore. And Eric Byrnes was probably their best outfielder last year, and he's gone. Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Tejada certainly have their work cut out for them this year. Are they necessarily in worse shape than the Devil Rays? No. But they are certainly in worse shape than they were last year.
And there you have it. Pretty much same 'ol stuff, different season for the AL East. And I truly believe that the battle for 4th place will be just as close as the battle between the Yanks, Sox and Jays, albiet, not as exciting.
New York Yankees (Division Champs)
Wins: 95-99
Positives: Derek Jeter is the best leader since Mark Messier. And A-rod and Mariano Rivera are the best in the league at their respective positions. Jason Giambi seems to have found his stroke again as well. This team has the ability and experience to win yet another AL East title. Joe Torre will again be the key should there be a losing streak to freak out the Boss. And not only is Johnny Damon one of the top lead-off hitters in the game, he's also not playing for Boston (or against the Yankees for 19 games) anymore.
Negatives: Outfield depth is far from an issue, but outfield defense could be. Matsui has been better than advertised defensively, but he's still no wiz. And neither Damon nor Sheffield can cover the amount of ground that they used to, plus, Damon's weak arm will be harder to hide in Yankee Stadium than it was in Fenway Park. There is also the question of whether the likes of Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small were one year wonders. Can Jaret Wright come back from injury? And Miguel Cairo is the only known back-up infielder on the team.
Outlook: I don't think they can win 100 games this year. The AL East has gotten much stronger, with the Blue Jays looking better than they have in over a decade. These teams will beat up on eachother all season long, and 100 wins will be tough to come by. I do think they have what it takes to win yet another AL East title though. Torre knows how to handle sticky situations. And contrary to what everyone has said in years past, Wang and Cano are two very nice prospects on the Yankees team that other teams will covet. Plus, is there any doubt that Steinbrenner will fork out the cash to bring in a missing piece at the deadline?
Boston Red Sox
Wins: 90-94
Positives: Youth. By far the best thing the Red Sox were able to do this offseason was to get younger in all areas. As beloved as guys like Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller were, they were no spring chickens. Not only were the offseason additions of Coco Crisp (26) and Josh Beckett (25) valuable on the field, they should hopefully be valuable for years to come. Spring training additions of Hee-Seop Choi (27) and Wily Mo Pena (24) added even more depth, and also gave the Sox two bright young outfielders under 30 years of age (Pena and Crisp). All of this was without having to give up the likes Craig Hansen, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen.
Negatives: The middle infield and the outfield are covered as far as depth goes, but after that, the ship gets shaky. With Wakefield's personal catcher Doug Mirabelli on the West coast now, Varitek's back-up is in question. The corner infield is covered by Youkilis, who had only 79 AB's last year, Mike Lowell, who has had a dismal Spring, Choi, and JT Snow, who is on the downside of his career, to say the least. And all of the starters that everyone has been raving about suddenly seem mediocre at best if the team can't get 300 innings out of Foulke and Schilling.
Outlook: This is as close to a rebuilding year as it will get for a while with the infusion of young talent in the offseason. But with question marks as big as Schilling and Foulke, its hard to think that if the teams of '03-05 couldn't knock off the Yankees as division champs, the '06 version does not seem a likely choice either. However, they should still make a push at the division crown, and at the very least, make the playoffs as the Wild Card.
Toronto Blue Jays
Wins: 85-89
Positives: One of the busiest teams in the offseason suddenly looks like a contender. They added a flame throwing closer in BJ Ryan, a 40 HR threat at third in Troy Glaus, a good young first baseman in Lyle Overbay, and a pitcher with one of the best fastballs in baseball in AJ Burnett. With Roy Halladay healthy, their first three starters (Halliday, Burnett and Lilly) are as strong as any other team in the East.
Negatives: Regardless of all the hype, Burnett's career record is still a game under .500, there's no garantee he'll develop into the pitcher they paid for. There's also the issue of division alignment. If the Jays played in the NL West, they'd run away with the division, no questions asked. Unfortunately for them, they play in the AL East, which is even more competetive than American Idol.
Outlook: Its going to be a battle for the top three teams in the AL East this year. I don't expect the Jays to fade as much as they have in years past, but I don't expect them to be playing for the division in September. A Wild Card berth is not out of the question though.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Wins: 70-75
Positives: Rocco Baldelli is scheduled to return this season. With both he and Crawford roaming the outfield, I could pass as the third outfielder. Fortunately the Devil Rays don't have that problem as they have speedster Joey Gathright. Jorge Cantu is only 24 years old and can play both 2b and 3b, and they can always hope that Aubrey Huff will bounce back from a less than notable season last year.
Negatives: Scott Kazmir is their only really good pitcher, and he's still developing, though, this could be a breakthrough year for the young lefty. After that, Edwin Jackson shows promise, and then there's everyone else. Factor in a first year manager, and the fact that Sean Burroughs was their biggest pick up of the off season, and it is going to be yet another long summer in Tampa Bay. A positive is that you can always see the Sox or Yanks for cheap if you're willing to travel.
Outlook: The Rays won 67 games last season, but aren't quite ready to jump up another 10 wins this season. They (like the Jays) unfortunately have to play in the AL East where everyone just takes turns walloping on eachother. Still, the return of Baldelli is intriguing, although we'll have to wait and see what he can do after missing an entire season. At least Rays fans will get to watch the young Kazmir every five days.
Baltimore Orioles
Wins: 67-73
Positives: Miguel Tejada is still an Oriole, for now.
Negatives: Everything else.
Outlook: This seems so doom and gloom. And even though it might look it, I don't hate the Orioles. The problem is that Tejada wanted them to improve, and I think they've taken a step back instead. Millar will be a good clubhouse addition, but little else. They lost a top 5 closer in BJ Ryan. There isn't a single Ace on their staff, and Kris Benson is hardly even a #2. Javy Lopez is 35, and his knees can't take catching anymore. And Eric Byrnes was probably their best outfielder last year, and he's gone. Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Tejada certainly have their work cut out for them this year. Are they necessarily in worse shape than the Devil Rays? No. But they are certainly in worse shape than they were last year.
And there you have it. Pretty much same 'ol stuff, different season for the AL East. And I truly believe that the battle for 4th place will be just as close as the battle between the Yanks, Sox and Jays, albiet, not as exciting.
posted by Trevor at 11:11 AM
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