Hot Stove
$38 to $45 million. Got your attention? Thats how much money the Red Sox have reportedly bid to the Seibu Lions for the right to negotiate with their 26 year old phenom pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Ten figures to negotiate with a pitcher from Japan. A pitcher who has never pitched a single inning in Major League Baseball. That enough to warm up the talks for off-season baseball moves? In no particular order, let us discuss a few moves the Sox will be considering during the off-season.
Relief Pitching
The Sox have declined their club option for reliever Keith Foulke, instead opting for the $1.5 million buyout, and Foulke has reciprocated by declining his player option to return to the Sox for $3.75 million. The funny thing? Nobody has seemed to have made even a little noise about it, positive, or negative. Now I was never a big fan of Keith Foulke, if you know me, you know that. But make no doubt about it, if Keith Foulke doesn't pitch the way he did in the 2004 playoffs, we'd be working on an 89 year drought in Boston. If there were a baseball playoff MVP, rather than an MVP for each individual round, the 2004 winner would have been Foulke. Not Manny, not Papi, and not even Schilling. Still, nobody is saddened by the news. Maybe it was his "Johnny Burger King" comments, or maybe it was his seeming lack of passion, but either way, nobody is batting an eye.
And the other relievers? Papelbon is gone as well. Thankfully, he's only left the bullpen for the starting rotation, but there wasn't a better closer in baseball for the majority of the season last year than Papelbon. Hopefully he can bring the same fire and intensity to the rotation.
Timlin? Can he still pitch? Sure, in mop up situations. With all due respect, he couldn't pitch last year. I love the guy, he's been a team guy and a gamer ever since he arrived in Boston, but he was a walking corpse on the mound last season. Maybe it was because he pitched in the WBC, maybe it was because he was just plain done. But either way, it doesn't seem likely he'll regain his '04 form for this season.
The bottom line is that the bullpen needs help, and lots of it. The Sox have plenty of young arms, but reliability is at a premium. One of their biggest off-season tasks is to rebuild the psyche of young prospect Craig Hansen, who got shelled after being called up late last season. Overall, there is a lot of work to do, but it can be done. Year after year, the closer position seems to be more mental than anything. Look at Brad Lidge. Closers are made just as easily as they can lose their jobs. Todd Jones? Bobby Jenks? JJ Putz? Not necessarily the BJ Ryan's and Mariano Rivera's of the world.
Manny
What would a hot stove in Boston be without talking about Manny Ramirez? And what kind of a person would I be if I tried to feed you sweet nothings about how much better off the Sox would be without him? Manny is not going anywhere. Nor should he. Is he a headache? Maybe. A distraction? At times. Overpaid? Sure. Worth every penny? You tell me. The fact is that the Sox are paying him a lot of money, and the fact remains that they would continue to pay him a lot of money, regardless of the uniform he's wearing next season.
And what would the return be for Manny? I'd accept nothing short of Howie Kendrick and and Ervin Santana for Manny at this point. But lets face it, Manny was placed on irrevocable waivers two seasons ago, and nobody took him. What would make someone give up two top tier prospects for him now? Probably nothing. And hopefully nothing. Why would a team want to get rid of one of the best right-handed hitters the game has ever seen? According to the Bill James handbook, if Manny stays healthy for the rest of his career, his career numbers would end up looking something like this: .305 batting average, .405 OBP, .580 slugging, 691 home runs and 2,288 RBIs. Seems pretty decent to me.
Catcher
V-Tek is here for another two seasons, unless the Sox think they could unload the contract they signed him to. I said it two years ago, and I'll say it again, this was a bad contract. Tek's offensive production dropped last year, again. He got hurt and missed a good portion of games in the middle of the season last year, again. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Varitek supporter, I think he's a stand up guy, and he calls one of the best games behind the plate. Pitchers, young and old, both feel comfortable working while throwing to him. But to think, we could have had Babe Ruth Bard backing him up, and perhaps getting ready to take over an everyday role this year? Oh well. It will be interesting to see who Theo has in mind for a back-up, and possible platoon player for Varitek this year. I think Bellhorn used to play a little catcher back in the day.
Starting Pitching
Alas, the most important one of them all. Your number one going into the season is Curt Schilling. No harm there. This is the guy who risked the rest of his career to pitch in the postseason for the Red Sox, had a terrible season following the World Series win, and bounced back marvelously last year. If anyone ever questions the dedication and toughness of this guy, they've got some serious issues. This is supposedly going to be his final season. It is the final year of his current contract. And he says that he owes his family too much for putting up with him being on the road his whole career that he promised this will be his last season. But on the other hand, the thought of playing for a team wherever he may settle down in the same role as a Roger Clemens the last two seasons has to be intriguing. At this point Schilling is 40/60 (in/out) at best for a bust in Cooperstown. But this is a man that knows his place in the game, and it might intrigue him to play for a team when he only has to travel if he's pitching. Either way, he's your ace going into this season.
Holding down the #2 spot in the rotation will again be Josh Beckett. One has to hope that his performance last year was simply an aberration, and not what to expect for the rest of his contract. But Beckett has done plenty in his young career to allow us to believe that he can bounce back and finally be the pitcher everyone thinks he can be.
Papelbon makes the move from the back of the pen, closing down games in pressure cooker situations, to the middle of the rotation, starting up some games in pressure cooker situations. Sure he's got the stuff to be a great pitcher, not a good pitcher, but a great one. But its his intensity that I love more than anything. The fist pumps leaving the mound, and the audacity to want the ball, no matter how grim the situation may look make me want him on the mound every 5th day.
Wakefield is potentially your #4 starter right now. But that might be subject to change. Wake has been nothing but positive since the day he first donned a Red Sox uniform. He closed, he came out of the bullpen, he's started, and he's given up post-season starts in order to keep the rest of the rotation intact and help win games. Whatever his role might be in '07, he will be a welcome sight. I will never complain about a man who has never complained about his own.
The fifth starter, or first starter, depending on how the off-season works out is the most intriguing part of this hot stove. The Sox have reportedly submitted the highest bid to the Seibu Lions for the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. This Japanese phenom reportedly has top of the rotation stuff. The Sox have offered $42 million to the Lions to negotiate with their star. If all reports are true, the Sox now have 30 days to negotiate a contract with the young pitcher. If Matsuzaka ends up in Boston, he would be their 5th starter, but that might not end up being his slot in the rotation. A lot of people might think that this is a lot of money to spend for a pitcher that hasn't pitched in the bigs, but its a smart move too. It solidifies the Red Sox in the East, it shows that they fully intend to remain contenders. It also gives them a chance to get a top of the rotation starter without waiting for him to develop for four years in the minors. Lastly, and possibly most importantly, it keeps Matsuzaka out of pinstripes. Very similar to the way putting Johnny Damon in pinstripes last season kept him out of a Sox uniform.
So there we have it. There are many more positional changes to talk about, most notably the middle infield. But that should be enough to get the pot going for now. This off-season shows the potential, as always, to be extremely interesting for Red Sox fans.
Relief Pitching
The Sox have declined their club option for reliever Keith Foulke, instead opting for the $1.5 million buyout, and Foulke has reciprocated by declining his player option to return to the Sox for $3.75 million. The funny thing? Nobody has seemed to have made even a little noise about it, positive, or negative. Now I was never a big fan of Keith Foulke, if you know me, you know that. But make no doubt about it, if Keith Foulke doesn't pitch the way he did in the 2004 playoffs, we'd be working on an 89 year drought in Boston. If there were a baseball playoff MVP, rather than an MVP for each individual round, the 2004 winner would have been Foulke. Not Manny, not Papi, and not even Schilling. Still, nobody is saddened by the news. Maybe it was his "Johnny Burger King" comments, or maybe it was his seeming lack of passion, but either way, nobody is batting an eye.
And the other relievers? Papelbon is gone as well. Thankfully, he's only left the bullpen for the starting rotation, but there wasn't a better closer in baseball for the majority of the season last year than Papelbon. Hopefully he can bring the same fire and intensity to the rotation.
Timlin? Can he still pitch? Sure, in mop up situations. With all due respect, he couldn't pitch last year. I love the guy, he's been a team guy and a gamer ever since he arrived in Boston, but he was a walking corpse on the mound last season. Maybe it was because he pitched in the WBC, maybe it was because he was just plain done. But either way, it doesn't seem likely he'll regain his '04 form for this season.
The bottom line is that the bullpen needs help, and lots of it. The Sox have plenty of young arms, but reliability is at a premium. One of their biggest off-season tasks is to rebuild the psyche of young prospect Craig Hansen, who got shelled after being called up late last season. Overall, there is a lot of work to do, but it can be done. Year after year, the closer position seems to be more mental than anything. Look at Brad Lidge. Closers are made just as easily as they can lose their jobs. Todd Jones? Bobby Jenks? JJ Putz? Not necessarily the BJ Ryan's and Mariano Rivera's of the world.
Manny
What would a hot stove in Boston be without talking about Manny Ramirez? And what kind of a person would I be if I tried to feed you sweet nothings about how much better off the Sox would be without him? Manny is not going anywhere. Nor should he. Is he a headache? Maybe. A distraction? At times. Overpaid? Sure. Worth every penny? You tell me. The fact is that the Sox are paying him a lot of money, and the fact remains that they would continue to pay him a lot of money, regardless of the uniform he's wearing next season.
And what would the return be for Manny? I'd accept nothing short of Howie Kendrick and and Ervin Santana for Manny at this point. But lets face it, Manny was placed on irrevocable waivers two seasons ago, and nobody took him. What would make someone give up two top tier prospects for him now? Probably nothing. And hopefully nothing. Why would a team want to get rid of one of the best right-handed hitters the game has ever seen? According to the Bill James handbook, if Manny stays healthy for the rest of his career, his career numbers would end up looking something like this: .305 batting average, .405 OBP, .580 slugging, 691 home runs and 2,288 RBIs. Seems pretty decent to me.
Catcher
V-Tek is here for another two seasons, unless the Sox think they could unload the contract they signed him to. I said it two years ago, and I'll say it again, this was a bad contract. Tek's offensive production dropped last year, again. He got hurt and missed a good portion of games in the middle of the season last year, again. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Varitek supporter, I think he's a stand up guy, and he calls one of the best games behind the plate. Pitchers, young and old, both feel comfortable working while throwing to him. But to think, we could have had Babe Ruth Bard backing him up, and perhaps getting ready to take over an everyday role this year? Oh well. It will be interesting to see who Theo has in mind for a back-up, and possible platoon player for Varitek this year. I think Bellhorn used to play a little catcher back in the day.
Starting Pitching
Alas, the most important one of them all. Your number one going into the season is Curt Schilling. No harm there. This is the guy who risked the rest of his career to pitch in the postseason for the Red Sox, had a terrible season following the World Series win, and bounced back marvelously last year. If anyone ever questions the dedication and toughness of this guy, they've got some serious issues. This is supposedly going to be his final season. It is the final year of his current contract. And he says that he owes his family too much for putting up with him being on the road his whole career that he promised this will be his last season. But on the other hand, the thought of playing for a team wherever he may settle down in the same role as a Roger Clemens the last two seasons has to be intriguing. At this point Schilling is 40/60 (in/out) at best for a bust in Cooperstown. But this is a man that knows his place in the game, and it might intrigue him to play for a team when he only has to travel if he's pitching. Either way, he's your ace going into this season.
Holding down the #2 spot in the rotation will again be Josh Beckett. One has to hope that his performance last year was simply an aberration, and not what to expect for the rest of his contract. But Beckett has done plenty in his young career to allow us to believe that he can bounce back and finally be the pitcher everyone thinks he can be.
Papelbon makes the move from the back of the pen, closing down games in pressure cooker situations, to the middle of the rotation, starting up some games in pressure cooker situations. Sure he's got the stuff to be a great pitcher, not a good pitcher, but a great one. But its his intensity that I love more than anything. The fist pumps leaving the mound, and the audacity to want the ball, no matter how grim the situation may look make me want him on the mound every 5th day.
Wakefield is potentially your #4 starter right now. But that might be subject to change. Wake has been nothing but positive since the day he first donned a Red Sox uniform. He closed, he came out of the bullpen, he's started, and he's given up post-season starts in order to keep the rest of the rotation intact and help win games. Whatever his role might be in '07, he will be a welcome sight. I will never complain about a man who has never complained about his own.
The fifth starter, or first starter, depending on how the off-season works out is the most intriguing part of this hot stove. The Sox have reportedly submitted the highest bid to the Seibu Lions for the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. This Japanese phenom reportedly has top of the rotation stuff. The Sox have offered $42 million to the Lions to negotiate with their star. If all reports are true, the Sox now have 30 days to negotiate a contract with the young pitcher. If Matsuzaka ends up in Boston, he would be their 5th starter, but that might not end up being his slot in the rotation. A lot of people might think that this is a lot of money to spend for a pitcher that hasn't pitched in the bigs, but its a smart move too. It solidifies the Red Sox in the East, it shows that they fully intend to remain contenders. It also gives them a chance to get a top of the rotation starter without waiting for him to develop for four years in the minors. Lastly, and possibly most importantly, it keeps Matsuzaka out of pinstripes. Very similar to the way putting Johnny Damon in pinstripes last season kept him out of a Sox uniform.
So there we have it. There are many more positional changes to talk about, most notably the middle infield. But that should be enough to get the pot going for now. This off-season shows the potential, as always, to be extremely interesting for Red Sox fans.
posted by Trevor at 3:08 AM
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