2008 MLB Predictions
Well, that wonderful time of the year is upon us. Baseball season is here. And for the second time in four years, the Boston Red Sox are the defending champs. I always wondered when I'd get to say that. As "fun" as it was being the lovable losers for 86 years, being the defending champs is way more fun. So, without further ado, here it goes...
AL EAST CHAMPS: Boston Red Sox
Am I a homer? Admittedly so. But even still, Boston is primed for another run at it. Toronto could be competitive, but with all their pitching concerns (Halladay, Burnett and Ryan), they could falter easily. I'm sure the Yankees will be there all year long, as they are every year. Their offense is going to be phenomenal, yet again. But concerns with their veteran pitchers, with Mussina on the backside of his career, and Pettitte with all of his off the field concerns, mixing with the fact that you have no idea what to expect from their youngsters of Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain, make for an inconsistent staff. The backside of their pen should again be lights out with Mo and Joba, but I think it will only be enough for second place in the AL East. While the Red Sox have concerns of their own, the emergence of Buchholz and Ellsbury should give a nice mix of veteran and young talent. And David Ortiz on two good knees will make all the difference.
AL CENTRAL CHAMPS: Cleveland Indians
Yes, it was the Detroit Tigers making the moves in the offseason, but they still have some concerns. Dontrelle Willis' numbers have declined steadily for the past three years in the Senior Circuit, so the move to the AL may leave something to be desired. The Tigers offense will score in bunches, especially when Granderson gets healthy, but there are too many concerns in their bullpen, such as the health issues with Zumaya, and the already inconsistent Todd Jones is pushing 40 years old. The Indians are just too solid all around. They have a bona-fide ace in CC Sabathia, backed up wonderfully by Fausto Carmona, as well as an incredible mixture of youngsters in the field, and one of the best bullpens in the AL. The race might be close for a little bit, but the Indians should run away with the division in the end.
AL WEST CHAMPS: Seattle Mariners
If you had asked me a month ago, I would have told you the Angels would win easily. But fortunately for us, I waited a month to write this. Lackey and Escobar will both start the season on the DL, with Escobar unlikely to return this season. I believe the addition of Torii Hunter might actually be better than people think, not as good as his contract, but better than expected. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to overcome the loss of 18 game winner Kelvim Escobar and 19 game winner John Lackey. On the flipside, the Mariners have added a sure #1 starter in Eric Bedard to an already good team. This should also take an immense amount of pressure off of King Felix, who should be able to relax this year, and just do what he does without the pressure label of being the #1 pitcher. And on the back end, JJ Putz might not get the attention of a Rivera or a Papelbon, but he's been similarly effective in recent history.
AL WILD CARD: New York Yankees
Come on, you didn't really think I was going to predict that the Yankees would miss the playoffs did you? There might be some competition for this spot from the Detroit Tigers, but the Yankees just have too much veteran talent and experience to let a less than perfect roster keep them out of the playoffs.
NL EAST CHAMPS: New York Mets
The Phillies and the Braves will give the Metropolitans a run for their money all season long. But something tells me the Mets won't allow themselves to implode in September like they did last year. With the addition of Johan Santana, John Maine slides nicely into the #3 spot in the rotation. The roster is loaded with talent of the likes of David Wright and Jose Reyes, Beltran is still talented enough to be a 30/30 guy, and Wagner can still close out games for them. Their key factor will be the health of Pedro Martinez. And Johan Santana has nothing to do with it. Johan isn't taking any pressure off of this guy. I'll tell you what, I'll buy pressure relief for King Felix, but not for Pedro. This is a guy who was the most dominant pitcher in baseball for five years, in one of the most pressure packed environments in baseball, oh, and he also pitched 7 scoreless innings in the 2004 World Series to clinch the first Boston World Series in 86 years. This guy eats pressure for breakfast. A healthy Pedro Martinez is the only Pedro Martinez you need to worry about.
NL CENTRAL CHAMPS: Milwaukee Brewers
Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks should be all you really need to know. But a healthy Ben Sheets, as well as the inning eating Jeff Suppan should round out a good NL staff. The biggest concern will be the ability of Eric Gagne to close out games on a consistent basis. But even if he blows a few, a fitter, 23 year old Prince Fielder, coming off a 50 home run season should be able to counter some of that. The Cubs could challenge for a little while, but I just don't think they can remain healthy. It will also be interesting to see how Kerry Wood handles pitching back-to-back days.
NL WEST CHAMPS: Arizona Diamondbacks.
Really, any of the teams (with the exception of the Giants) could win the NL West. But I'm going to go with the D-Backs. They're a very good hitting young team. Another season under Chris Young and Stephen Drew's belts should only help the team. Oh yeah, and they also added that Dan Haren guy. They're beginning to resemble the D-Backs of 2001 with a 1a and a 1b on their staff. The Rockies can hit, but their pitching remains a question. The Padres can pitch, but their hitting remains a question. The most intriguing team might be the Dodgers here. People say that Joe Torre infused the locker room with confidence the first day he walked in. They still have a competitive staff, and enough hitting to survive in the NL West. That said, I think the Diamondbacks hold on in what should be a tight race for the last few months of the season.
NL WILD CARD: Philadelphia Phillies
This race should consist of the Phillies and the Braves all year long. As much as anyone in the West has a chance to win the West, I just don't think they have what it takes to compete with the East for the WC spot. And even if they are talented enough, unfortunately they have to beat each other up all season in division play. The Braves pitching, and the Phillies hitting, should make for a fun race to October. In the end, I expect Rollins, Utley, Hamels and crew to be too much for the Braves.
ALDS: Sox over Mariners, Yankees over Indians
NLDS: Phillies over Brewers, D-Backs over Mets
ALCS: Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Phils over D-Backs
WORLD SERIES: Red Sox in 6
AL MVP: Big Papi
It was true in 2004 and 2006, and it will be true this year. David Ortiz will be the MVP in the AL. There's no doubt that A-Rod deserved it last year. None. But Papi went 35/117/.332 last year essentially on one knee. Two good knees has got to be good for something right? I don't care if he doesn't play in the field, or if he wants to pitch too, his value to the team is unquestionable. I'd rather have him do his thing hitting and be the DH, than do his thing hitting, and commit 30 errors at first base. And its not even like he's that terrible at first actually, there's just a better defensive first baseman on the team, and health is a concern, so being a DH makes sense.
AL CY YOUNG: Eric Bedard
This will probably come down to one of three pitchers, Bedard, Sabathia, and Beckett. I'm giving a slight edge to Bedard because I don't really think people actually know how good he is yet. He played on a terrible team last year. He's now starting for a playoff hopeful team. His ERA and K's were already there last year, so a good team should improve his win total. Also, with the pitching woes of the Angels, Beckett and Sabathia will probably face much more competitive teams on a consistent basis.
NL MVP: Prince Fielder
Listen, he's 23. He's not even entering the age yet where people would say one is at their athletic prime, and he's coming off a 50 home run season. He's said to be in the best shape he's ever been in. The sky is the limit for this kid. He needs to work on his strikeout totals, and be a bit more efficient with runners on base, but he's already a very good hitter, on a pretty good hitting ball club. There should be plenty of people on base in front of him to drive in this season. And if the Brewers win the Central as I predict, he should be a shoe in for the MVP.
NL CY YOUNG: Johan Santana
With all due respect to Jake Peavy, whom I believe is one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball, Santana's move to the NL might have just swept the rug out from under his feet. Santana has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the past three seasons, and now he's pitching in the senior circuit. He's going to have one of the top offenses in the NL behind him, so wins shouldn't be hard to come by. He'll almost certainly still get the K's, and have a ridiculously low WHIP. The only stat of his that might suffer this year from the move to the NL would be his ERA, if he so happens to get taken out a bit earlier sometimes for a double switch or pinch hitter.
So there you have it. In writing, my predictions for the 2008 baseball season. Whether I'm right, or wrong, I can't wait to find out. Let the games begin.
AL EAST CHAMPS: Boston Red Sox
Am I a homer? Admittedly so. But even still, Boston is primed for another run at it. Toronto could be competitive, but with all their pitching concerns (Halladay, Burnett and Ryan), they could falter easily. I'm sure the Yankees will be there all year long, as they are every year. Their offense is going to be phenomenal, yet again. But concerns with their veteran pitchers, with Mussina on the backside of his career, and Pettitte with all of his off the field concerns, mixing with the fact that you have no idea what to expect from their youngsters of Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain, make for an inconsistent staff. The backside of their pen should again be lights out with Mo and Joba, but I think it will only be enough for second place in the AL East. While the Red Sox have concerns of their own, the emergence of Buchholz and Ellsbury should give a nice mix of veteran and young talent. And David Ortiz on two good knees will make all the difference.
AL CENTRAL CHAMPS: Cleveland Indians
Yes, it was the Detroit Tigers making the moves in the offseason, but they still have some concerns. Dontrelle Willis' numbers have declined steadily for the past three years in the Senior Circuit, so the move to the AL may leave something to be desired. The Tigers offense will score in bunches, especially when Granderson gets healthy, but there are too many concerns in their bullpen, such as the health issues with Zumaya, and the already inconsistent Todd Jones is pushing 40 years old. The Indians are just too solid all around. They have a bona-fide ace in CC Sabathia, backed up wonderfully by Fausto Carmona, as well as an incredible mixture of youngsters in the field, and one of the best bullpens in the AL. The race might be close for a little bit, but the Indians should run away with the division in the end.
AL WEST CHAMPS: Seattle Mariners
If you had asked me a month ago, I would have told you the Angels would win easily. But fortunately for us, I waited a month to write this. Lackey and Escobar will both start the season on the DL, with Escobar unlikely to return this season. I believe the addition of Torii Hunter might actually be better than people think, not as good as his contract, but better than expected. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to overcome the loss of 18 game winner Kelvim Escobar and 19 game winner John Lackey. On the flipside, the Mariners have added a sure #1 starter in Eric Bedard to an already good team. This should also take an immense amount of pressure off of King Felix, who should be able to relax this year, and just do what he does without the pressure label of being the #1 pitcher. And on the back end, JJ Putz might not get the attention of a Rivera or a Papelbon, but he's been similarly effective in recent history.
AL WILD CARD: New York Yankees
Come on, you didn't really think I was going to predict that the Yankees would miss the playoffs did you? There might be some competition for this spot from the Detroit Tigers, but the Yankees just have too much veteran talent and experience to let a less than perfect roster keep them out of the playoffs.
NL EAST CHAMPS: New York Mets
The Phillies and the Braves will give the Metropolitans a run for their money all season long. But something tells me the Mets won't allow themselves to implode in September like they did last year. With the addition of Johan Santana, John Maine slides nicely into the #3 spot in the rotation. The roster is loaded with talent of the likes of David Wright and Jose Reyes, Beltran is still talented enough to be a 30/30 guy, and Wagner can still close out games for them. Their key factor will be the health of Pedro Martinez. And Johan Santana has nothing to do with it. Johan isn't taking any pressure off of this guy. I'll tell you what, I'll buy pressure relief for King Felix, but not for Pedro. This is a guy who was the most dominant pitcher in baseball for five years, in one of the most pressure packed environments in baseball, oh, and he also pitched 7 scoreless innings in the 2004 World Series to clinch the first Boston World Series in 86 years. This guy eats pressure for breakfast. A healthy Pedro Martinez is the only Pedro Martinez you need to worry about.
NL CENTRAL CHAMPS: Milwaukee Brewers
Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks should be all you really need to know. But a healthy Ben Sheets, as well as the inning eating Jeff Suppan should round out a good NL staff. The biggest concern will be the ability of Eric Gagne to close out games on a consistent basis. But even if he blows a few, a fitter, 23 year old Prince Fielder, coming off a 50 home run season should be able to counter some of that. The Cubs could challenge for a little while, but I just don't think they can remain healthy. It will also be interesting to see how Kerry Wood handles pitching back-to-back days.
NL WEST CHAMPS: Arizona Diamondbacks.
Really, any of the teams (with the exception of the Giants) could win the NL West. But I'm going to go with the D-Backs. They're a very good hitting young team. Another season under Chris Young and Stephen Drew's belts should only help the team. Oh yeah, and they also added that Dan Haren guy. They're beginning to resemble the D-Backs of 2001 with a 1a and a 1b on their staff. The Rockies can hit, but their pitching remains a question. The Padres can pitch, but their hitting remains a question. The most intriguing team might be the Dodgers here. People say that Joe Torre infused the locker room with confidence the first day he walked in. They still have a competitive staff, and enough hitting to survive in the NL West. That said, I think the Diamondbacks hold on in what should be a tight race for the last few months of the season.
NL WILD CARD: Philadelphia Phillies
This race should consist of the Phillies and the Braves all year long. As much as anyone in the West has a chance to win the West, I just don't think they have what it takes to compete with the East for the WC spot. And even if they are talented enough, unfortunately they have to beat each other up all season in division play. The Braves pitching, and the Phillies hitting, should make for a fun race to October. In the end, I expect Rollins, Utley, Hamels and crew to be too much for the Braves.
ALDS: Sox over Mariners, Yankees over Indians
NLDS: Phillies over Brewers, D-Backs over Mets
ALCS: Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Phils over D-Backs
WORLD SERIES: Red Sox in 6
AL MVP: Big Papi
It was true in 2004 and 2006, and it will be true this year. David Ortiz will be the MVP in the AL. There's no doubt that A-Rod deserved it last year. None. But Papi went 35/117/.332 last year essentially on one knee. Two good knees has got to be good for something right? I don't care if he doesn't play in the field, or if he wants to pitch too, his value to the team is unquestionable. I'd rather have him do his thing hitting and be the DH, than do his thing hitting, and commit 30 errors at first base. And its not even like he's that terrible at first actually, there's just a better defensive first baseman on the team, and health is a concern, so being a DH makes sense.
AL CY YOUNG: Eric Bedard
This will probably come down to one of three pitchers, Bedard, Sabathia, and Beckett. I'm giving a slight edge to Bedard because I don't really think people actually know how good he is yet. He played on a terrible team last year. He's now starting for a playoff hopeful team. His ERA and K's were already there last year, so a good team should improve his win total. Also, with the pitching woes of the Angels, Beckett and Sabathia will probably face much more competitive teams on a consistent basis.
NL MVP: Prince Fielder
Listen, he's 23. He's not even entering the age yet where people would say one is at their athletic prime, and he's coming off a 50 home run season. He's said to be in the best shape he's ever been in. The sky is the limit for this kid. He needs to work on his strikeout totals, and be a bit more efficient with runners on base, but he's already a very good hitter, on a pretty good hitting ball club. There should be plenty of people on base in front of him to drive in this season. And if the Brewers win the Central as I predict, he should be a shoe in for the MVP.
NL CY YOUNG: Johan Santana
With all due respect to Jake Peavy, whom I believe is one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball, Santana's move to the NL might have just swept the rug out from under his feet. Santana has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the past three seasons, and now he's pitching in the senior circuit. He's going to have one of the top offenses in the NL behind him, so wins shouldn't be hard to come by. He'll almost certainly still get the K's, and have a ridiculously low WHIP. The only stat of his that might suffer this year from the move to the NL would be his ERA, if he so happens to get taken out a bit earlier sometimes for a double switch or pinch hitter.
So there you have it. In writing, my predictions for the 2008 baseball season. Whether I'm right, or wrong, I can't wait to find out. Let the games begin.
posted by Trevor at 6:55 PM
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