Tuesday, August 08, 2006

MVPapi (again)

Scoop Jackson beat me to it here on ESPN.com, but that doesn't make it any less true. Actually, if you'd like to get technical, I beat him to it, a year ago right here on this very page. It was true a year ago, and it has been true ever since, Big Papi is the AL MVP.

Even if the Red Sox (ghasp) miss the playoffs, there is very little argument that anyone has meant more to their team in the AL this year. And if the Sox make the playoffs? There is no argument.

Listen, say they even win the AL East and make it over the mighty Yankees. Who is the MVP from that season? Derek Jeter? Please. Listen, I respect the guy, I kind of even like him. He's a magnificent player, he's a winner, and he's having a career year. But even with the injuries to outfielders Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, the Yankees offense has been far from their problem. Jorge Posada is having his best season in three years, Giambi is stroking the ball with more power than he has in recent memory (and hopefully peeing in a cup after every home run). So what A-rod is having an off year, there's still Mo. The point is, Jeter is having a very good season, but the numbers he is putting up are not league MVP type numbers. He gets to bat behind the best leadoff hitter in the game, and again, even with those outfield injuries, the Yankees 3-4-5 hitters still make any pitcher cringe.

So what about the Central? I mean come on, there's gotta be someone in the Central that can garner more MVP votes than a DH right? How about the Tigers? They've been a great story all year long. And they are going to win the AL Central. But who on that team is the MVP? Their BA leader is hitting .307, their home run leader has 21, their stolen base leader has 16 and their RBI leader has 79, and guess what? All of those guys, are different players on the team. In an age run by superstars, the Tigers are doing it the old fashioned way, as a team. There are no superstars there, there are just a bunch of good baseball players, having good seasons at the same time, and a wealth of talented young pitchers.

The White Sox? Sure. They've got 2, maybe even three legitimate candidates. But therein lies the problem. Paul Konerko is doing what Paul Konerko does. He's on pace for 40+ HRs and 100+ RBIs... again. Jermaine Dye is proving, again, what he is capable of when he's healthy for an entire season. And Jim Thome is basically a lock for comeback player of the year, while also putting up MVP type numbers, as a DH. All three are probably worthy of some votes. The problem for them is that they all play on the same team, so instead of splitting votes two ways, like candidates often do (Manny and Papi), they're going to split votes three ways. Which, in the end, doesn't work out well for any of them.

And Minnesota is in a similar boat to Chicago. Cases could be made for any number of players on their team from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to Francisco Liriano. Unfortunately, Liriano's season might be over. And as impressive as Mauer's .363 average is, he's mainly a singles hitter, for now. So tell me honestly then, would you take Morneau over Papi?

From here, we can pretty much eliminate anyone in the West as a candidate for the MVP award. As much as I like Vlad, and as much as I think he should have been second in MVP voting last year, he's simply not putting together that type of season this year. And nobody else in the West is even close.

So why are we so afraid to give an MVP award to a DH? Is there something taboo about the position? Is it not the same position in the lineup that each of the other teams get to use when playing in an AL park? Sure is. David Ortiz is also capable of playing in the field, as he's shown in the World Series and interleague play. The Sox simply have a better choice to put in the field at first base.

Barry Bonds has won 7 MVP awards, including 4 straight between '01-'04. Yes, he has also won Golden Glove awards. But none recently. In fact, for those 4 straight MVPs, Bond's fielding percentage was .980, hardly award worthy, but the fact that he was nowhere near his former Gold Glove self in the outfield seemed to go unnoticed. Other less than stellar defenders who also doubled as MVP award winners? Try Slammin' Sammy. NL MVP in 1998. Sosa compiled a .974 fielding percentage in the OF that year with 9 errors. Alright, but anything worse? I'm glad you asked. How about the now infamous Ken Caminiti? He sported an awful .954 fielding percentage with 20 errors playing the hot corner for the Padres when he won the award in 1996. Twenty errors at the hot corner?! Isn't that an important position? Are you kidding me? Twenty errors and you win the MVP?? Because why? He showed the effort by playing in the field? Now I know there was no option for him to DH in the NL, but the point remains, how much did Caminiti playing in the field really help his team? I'd say somewhere between a little bit, to not at all.

So back to my man Big Papi. Nobody would argue his importance to the Red Sox. But how valuable would he be if he played in the field? The same? Would his numbers offset his defensive inefficiencies? Or would they hurt the team too much? How about a limited sample, so far this season Papi has started 10 games at first base, and made 2 errors. Which projects to roughly 34 errors in a whole season. So my man plays the season at first, instead of DHing, drives in 160 runs, cranks 50+ longballs, and sports 34 errors at one of the most important defensive positions in the game, still MVP caliber? Now, let me be fair to Papi, as I stated, that is a very limited sample from this season. Take his '03 stats, 45 games started, 3 errors, projects to 10.8 errors on the season in 162 games. Not too bad. The point is that he can play first base, the fact is that he doesn't. He simply hits.

Now I'm a stats guy. Show me the numbers and I'll listen to you. Argue with me based on the SportsCenter highlights you saw last night and I'll laugh in your face. The numbers don't lie. I've read numerous articles, with substantial statistical support that say that clutch hitting does not exist. In the end, players are going to hit for their average, and get on base at the same clip that they always get on base. Jeter and Ortiz both come up to bat a lot in clutch type situations, therefore, it seems that they succeed more than others. But as little as I believe in the myth of clutch hitting, I'll still answer Papi when you ask me which Sox hitter I'd most like to see at the dish with the game on the line.

There's just something magic about that guy. There was something magic in the '04 ALCS. And there has been something magic ever since. He's so charismatic that men, women and children all love him just the same. He's been carrying such a big stick since the end of the '04 season, that it seems that everyone except opposing managers have discovered that pitching to Papi in late and close situations is just a bad idea.

Courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau, and thanks to the research work of Scoop Jackson, we have this staggering statistic: since the start of the 2004 postseason, Ortiz has come to the plate in 19 walk-off situations. And he has successfully reached base 16 times, hitting 11-for-14 with seven home runs. Nineteen chances. Eleven hits. Two walks. Sixteen times he has successfully reached at least first base. Sure that is a small sample size, too small for me to give into the myth of clutch hitting. But it sure is impressive, and it does prove one thing, this guy is good. Regardless of clutch hitting existing, or not existing, the fact remains that opposing teams would probably rather see anyone on the Sox come to the dish in a walk-off situation other than Big Papi, as much as everyone who likes the Sox loves to see the third spot in the order come up to bat with the game on the line.

The man is just plain good. Manny is just Manny, and other than getting more than advertised from Alex Gonzalez at short, the Sox have gotten less than advertised from pretty much everyone else, namely Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek. Papi has come through when it has counted, and stayed away from hurting the team with poor play in the field. He propelled the Red Sox to the cover of Time magazine after helping them win their first World Series title in 86 years in 2004, and hasn't looked back since (the '05 World Series Champion Chicago White Sox weren't even the feature story on the cover of Sports Illustrated after they won). Not only does he put up staggering numbers, but he has the ear of his teammates, the heart of the city, and the attention of every opposing manager.

It was true in 2005, and it is true in 2006, glove or no glove, David Ortiz is the American League MVP.